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問題 #216
Under the credit migration approach to assessing portfolio credit risk, which of the following are needed to generate a distribution of future portfolio values?
答案:D
解題說明:
The credit migration approach to assessing portfolio credit risk involves obtaining a distribution of future portfolio values from the ratings migration matrix. First, the frequencies in the matrix are used as probabilities, and expected future values of the securities belonging to each rating category are calculated.
These are then discounted to the present using the discount rate appropriate to the 'future' rating category. This gives us a forward distribution of the value of each security in the portfolio. These are then combined using the default correlations between the issuers. The default correlation between the issuers is often proxied using asset returns, and recognizing that default occurs when asset values fall below a certain threshold. A distribution for the future value of the portfolio is generated using simulation, and from this distribution the Credit VaR can be calculated.
Thus, we need the migration matrix, the risk horizon from which the present values need to be calculated, and the forward yield curve or the discount curve for each rating category for the risk horizon. Thus, Choice 'd' is the correct answer.
問題 #217
Which of the following event types is hacking damage classified under Basel II operational risk classifications?
答案:D
解題說明:
Choice 'b' is the correct answer. All other answers are incorrect.
Refer to the detailed loss event type classification under Basel II (see Annex 9 of the accord). You should know the exact names of all loss event types, and examples of each.
問題 #218
A portfolio has two loans, A and B, each worth $1m. The probability of default of loan A is 10% and that of loan B is 15%. The probability of both loans defaulting together is 1%. Calculate the expected loss on the portfolio.
答案:D
解題說明:
The easiest way to answer this question is to ignore the joint probability of default as that is irrelevant to expected losses. The joint probability of default impacts the volatility of the losses, but not the expected amount. One way to think about it is to think of asset portfolios, where diversification reduces risk (ie standard deviation) but the expected returns are nothing but the average of the expected returns in the portfolio. Just as the expected returns of the portfolio are not affected by the volatility or correlations (these affect standard deviation), in the same way the joint probability of default does not affect the expected losses.
Therefore the expected losses for this portfolio are simply $1m x 10% + $1m x 15% = $250,000.
This can also be seen from the lens of a joint probability distribution as follows:
A white rectangular grid with black text Description automatically generated
There are four possibilities for this portfolio:
- Only loan A defaults: loss of $1m: 9% probability
- Only loan B defaults: loss of $1m: 14% probability
- Both loan A and B default: loss of $2m: 1% probability
- Neither A nor B default: loss of $0m: 76% probability
Therefore the expected losses on the portfolio are ($1m x 9%) + ($1m x 14%) + ($2m x 1%) + ($0m x 76%) =
$250,000.
(Notes: How is the above table calculated? The totals (10%, 90%, 15% and 85%) are filled in first. The top left cell (both A & B default) is given as 1%. We can now calculate the rest of the cells as the totals are known.)
問題 #219
In January, a bank buys a basket of mortgages with a view to securitize them by April. Due to an unexpected lack of investors in the securitization market, it is unable to do so and is left with the exposure to the mortgages on its books. This is an example of:
答案:A
解題說明:
This is an example of pipeline and warehousing risk. Generally there is a lag between acquiring assets and securitizing them due to the legal work to be done, the work to be done by the ratings agencies and in finding investors. During this period, the bank is exposed to the underlying assets purchased, and this is the 'pipeline and warehousing' risk as these assets are in the pipeline and warehoused for intended subsequent sale.
Generally this period tends to be short. However, during the credit crisis this became a significant source of risk as many banks were left exposed to risk they had intended to get rid of, but could not do so as the market dried up. The other choices are all incorrect.
Note that pipeline and warehousing risk is also known as 'securitzation risk'. It means that funding from securitization cannot be relied upon as a matter of fact.
問題 #220
Which of the following statements is true?
I. Real Time Gross Systems (RTGS) for large value payments consume less system liquidity than Deferred Net Systems (DNS) II. The US Fedwire is an example of a Real Time Gross System III. Current disclosure requirements in relation to liquidity risk as laid down in the Basel framework require banks to disclose how liquidity stress scenarios were formulated IV. A CFP (Contingency Funding Plan) provides access to Central Bank financing
答案:D
解題說明:
The correct answer is choice 'd'
For settlement of interbank payments, there are broadly two kinds of systems: RTGS (Real TimeGross Systems) and Deferred Net Systems (DNS). RTGS process payments in real time, settlement by settlement, and each transaction is settled by the a clearing institution (mostly the central bank) on a gross basis without regard for other settlements affecting the counterparty. DNS systems, on the other hand, allow for debiting or crediting the accounts of counterparties at periodic intervals after netting all payments paid or received since the last settlement. The exact timing of the payments does not matter so long as a bank has sufficient funding on a net basis at settlement time. Implicit in the DNS system is the extension of credit and liquidity by the central bank to the participating banks as it is possible for a bank to issue payment instructions even without having funds so long as they can arrange for such funds prior to settlement at the end of the day. In RTGS, a bank needs to have funds to make a payment at any point, and cannot make a payment against moneys expected to be received later intra-day. RTGS systems therefore need more liquidity on the part of the participants, and consume far more liquidity than DNS arrangements. Of course, the 'liquidity' of the DNS arrangement has a cost - which is that someone is taking up settlement risk, and invariably it is the central bank. If a bank under DNS fails to settle, its transactions have to be 'unwound', ie all payments made by it have to be rolled back. This can cause other banks to trip, causing further unwinding transactions. RTGS systems do not carry this risk. Therefore statement I is not correct as RTGS consume more liquidity than DNS arrangements.
Statement II is correct. US Fedwire or European TARGET are RTGS while CHIPS is a DNS based payment system.
Statement III is not correct. Current Basel requirements do not require any disclosure in respect of liquidity risk management. A consultative paper was issued by BIS in Dec 2009 for comments from members, but it is far from final. The BIS is still reacting to the liquidity issues that arose during the 2007-09 credit crisis.
Statement IV is not correct as a CFP is like a disaster recovery plan for liquidity, ie it helps a bank plan for and think about what steps would be taken to deal with a liquidity disaster situation. It does not provide any access to central bank financing.
問題 #221
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